Special Planning
HE Chunmei, ZHANG Hongying, CHEN Lijuan, XIONG Linzhu, TIAN Miao, JIANG Hongmei, DOU Yan
Objective To identify the risk factors for hip fractures among elderly community-dwelling residents and develop a prediction model for hip fracture. Methods Between January 2023 and March 2023, 700 cases of community residents in Deyang city elderly aged 60 and above were selected, using the stratified sampling. They were collected data on demographics, lifestyles and habits, and risk factors for hip fractures and followed up for one year to observe the occurrence of hip fracture. They were randomly divided into a training group(n=479) and a validation group(n=221). The training group was used to build the prediction model, the minimum absolute contraction and selection operator(LASSO) was used to screen the variables, while the predictive variables were determined by Logistic regression analysis, and the nomogram prediction model was constructed and verified by R 4.3.1 software. Results The incidence of hip fracture was 8.86%(62/700). Regular food intake, osteoporosis, fall within 1 year, daily sunshine duration, daily exercise duration, and number of real teeth were predictors of hip fracture among elderly people in the communities. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the training group and verification group were 0.945[95%CI(0.908,0.982)] and 0.892[95%CI(0.784,0.999)], respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow tests of both groups showed P>0.05. Conclusion The model developed in this study can be used to assess the risk of hip fractures in elderly community residents in Deyang city by medical staff, so as to lower the incidence of hip fracture among the elderly and enhance their life quality.