• 经济理论与实践 •

购房压力上升会使中国家庭消费倾向下降吗？

1. 中南财经政法大学 金融学院
• 出版日期:2022-02-20 发布日期:2022-03-22

Will Rising Pressure on Housing Price Reduce the Household's Propensity to Consume in China？

• Online:2022-02-20 Published:2022-03-22

Abstract:

In recent years，China's housing price has grown rapidly，and it is increasingly hard for households to buy a house. Will this affect their consumption decisions？ This study innovates the house price-to-income ratio index to measure the pressure of household purchase and examines its impact on household consumption. Based on the data of the China Household Finance Survey（CHFS）in 2017，the paper firstly constructs an intertemporal consumption model for household purchases. Empirical research finds that households with high pressure to buy a house tend to have higher consumption propensity，and the robustness of the conclusion is verified by using substitution variables and matching propensity scores. Heterogeneity results show that for rural households，households in central and western regions，and households with better financial knowledge，the pressure to buy a house has a more significant impact on household consumption propensity. The mechanism test shows that the consumption of low-income households will catch up with the consumption of high-income households，and it is found that there is a cohort effect，and an optimistic attitude can restrain the consumption propensity of urban
households.

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