兰州财经大学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 60-74.

• 人口、资源与环境经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口老龄化、产业结构升级与区域碳排放

  

  1. 兰州财经大学 财税与公共管理学院
  • 出版日期:2022-02-20 发布日期:2022-03-22

Research on Population Aging,Upgrading of Industrial Structure,and Regional Carbon Emissions

  • Online:2022-02-20 Published:2022-03-22

摘要:

采用中国2009—2019年省级面板数据,运用空间计量方法研究分析人口老龄化、产业结构升级对区域碳排放的影响,研究发现:中国各地区的碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性和空间溢出效应;人口老龄化与产业结构高级化和区域碳排放二者之间呈“U”型关系,人口老龄化与产业结构合理化之间呈倒“U”型关系;产业结构升级对促进区域碳减排具有显著的正面影响;当下的人口老龄化与产业结构升级对地区碳减排有显著的正向关联作用;另外科技创新、人力资本、对外开放、政府公共服务水平、基础设施水平的提升,以及地方政府宏观税负水平的降低都会对区域碳排放产生显著的负向影响。此外,中介效应检验发现,人口老龄化能够通过产业结构升级这个关键路径对区域碳排放产生重要影响。

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Abstract:

Based on China's provincial panel data from 2009 to 2019,this paper analyzes the impact of population aging and upgrading of industrial structure on regional carbon emissions by using spatial econometric methods. The study finds that carbon emissions across China have significant positive spatial correlation and spatial spillover effects. There is a u-shaped relationship between population aging and advanced industrial structure and regional carbon emissions. There is an inverted U-shaped relation⁃ ship between population aging and rationalization of industrial structure. The upgrading of industrial structure has a significant positive impact on promoting regional carbon emission reduction. The current population aging and industrial structure upgrade have a significant positive correlation with regional carbon emission reduction. Technology innovation,human capital,opening to the outside world,the improvement of government public services,infrastructure,and the reduction of the tax burden of local governments will all have a significant negative impact on regional carbon emissions. In addition,the intermediary effect test shows that the aging of the population can have an important impact on regional carbon emissions through the upgrading of industrial structures.
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