山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述

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摘要临界雨量是一个关键的山洪灾害预警指标。按其技术原理将临界雨量推求方法划分为数据驱动的统计归纳法和基于灾变物理机制的水文水力学法分别进行评述，并介绍了临界雨量指标的两个拓展：动态临界雨量和暴雨临界曲线，综述了临界雨量不确定性分析的研究进展。通过综述发现：中国目前主要应用的是较简单的统计归纳法；临界雨量推求主要考虑前期降雨量（前期土壤饱和度）和时段累积降雨量两个因素的影响或仅后者一个；临界雨量指标难以反映山洪灾害的规模；考虑临界雨量不确定性有助于提高预警质量，但如何充分考虑其影响仍然是一个挑战。

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	程卫帅

关键词 ：山洪灾害, 临界雨量, 前期土壤饱和度, 降雨强度, 累积降雨量

Abstract：The rainfall threshold is an important indicator of flash flood conditions. In this study, the existing methods for computing rainfall thresholds are divided into two categories and reviewed on the basis of their technical principles. The two categories include the data-driven statistical and inductive methods and the physical process-based hydrologic hydraulic methods. As expansions of rainfall thresholds, the dynamic rainfall threshold and the storm critical curve are also introduced and discussed together with advances in uncertainty analysis of rainfall thresholds. In our review, the statistical and inductive methods have been more widely accepted in China. Moreover, antecedent rainfall (or antecedent soil saturation) and cumulative rainfall at particular time intervals are the two governing factors commonly considered in the calculation of rainfall thresholds. Cumulative rainfall may be the loneliness factor to be considered at times. Further, it is found that the rainfall threshold conveys poorly the magnitude of flash flooding. Understanding of the uncertainty in rainfall threshold calculations would be helpful for the improvement of flash flood warnings. However, how to incorporate the uncertainty into the decision-making process still remains a major challenge.

Key words： flash flood rainfall threshold antecedent soil moisture rainfall intensity cumulative rainfall

收稿日期: 2013-04-15

中图分类号:	TV122
	G353.11

基金资助:水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目（201201063）

作者简介: 程卫帅（1977-），男，湖北崇阳人，高级工程师，博士，主要从事水资源及水灾害风险管理研究。E-mail：chengws@mail.crsri.cn

引用本文:

程卫帅. 山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述[J]. , 2013, 24(6): 901-908. CHENG Weishuai. A review of rainfall thresholds for triggering flash floods. , 2013, 24(6): 901-908.

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http://journal16.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_skxjz/CN/ 或 http://journal16.magtechjournal.com/Jweb_skxjz/CN/Y2013/V24/I6/901

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