Advances in hydrologic ensemble prediction experiment
LU Gui-hua1,2, WU Juan1,2, WU Zhi-yong1,2
1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Institute of Water Problems, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Abstract：As a method for probabilistic forecasting, the hydrologic ensemble prediction provides deterministic forecast as well as uncertain information. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) is an international initiative to advance probabilistic hydrological forecast techniques for flood, drought and water management applications. We review three recent HEPEX researches on the downscaling, ensemble prediction system and associated uncertainty issues in an effort to provide a useful platform for the development of hydrological forecasting. The results demonstrate that the applicability of the dynamical-statistical downscaling, and combining high-resolution with ensemble modeling system into operational practices, are the main direction for HEPEX future research.
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2012, Vol. 23 
